Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Cardenas" if Emiliano Cardenas is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alexis Alvarado at Zuffa Boxing 6: Mosley Jr. vs. Bohachuk, scheduled for May 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Alvarado" if Alexis Alvarado is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.ufc.com/.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cardenas vs. Alvarado | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Emiliano Cardenas will face Alexis Alvarado in a bantamweight preliminary bout at Zuffa Boxing 6, headlined by Mosley Jr. versus Bohachuk on 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for a Cardenas victory, indicating either minimal trading activity or strong consensus backing Alvarado. Preliminary bouts on major cards typically attract lower liquidity than main events, which can result in wide bid-ask spreads and prices that don't reflect underlying fight dynamics.
Preliminary fighters in professional boxing often have limited public records and media coverage compared to main-card competitors. Historical patterns suggest that when little information is available about lesser-known fighters, markets can become illiquid or reflect the views of a small number of traders rather than aggregate wisdom. The settlement mechanism here includes a 50-50 resolution for draws, technical draws, no contests, or cancellations, which adds complexity beyond simple win-loss outcomes.
Key catalysts for this market include official weigh-in results and any fighter withdrawals or schedule changes announced before 10 May. Traders should monitor Zuffa Boxing's official announcements and the UFC website for fighter health updates or card adjustments. The settlement window closes on 11 May at 03:59:59 UTC, allowing minimal time for post-fight clarifications. Given the preliminary status and current zero probability, any meaningful information about either fighter's recent form or injury status could shift the order book substantially.
Zuffa Boxing is a professional boxing promotion company founded by CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), Dana White, and Chairman of the Saudi Arabian General Entertainment Authority (GEA), Turki Al-Sheikh. The company is a joint venture between Sela and TKO Group Holdings (TKO), and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zuffa Boxing 6: Cardenas vs. Alvarado (Bantamweight, Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$179 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $179 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: