Trade: Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 17 at 7:00PM ET: If the Chicago Sky win, the market will resolve to "Chicago Sky". If the Minnesota Lynx win, the market will resolve to "Minnesota Lynx". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $3
- 24h Volume
- $1
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Market context
The Chicago Sky and Minnesota Lynx are scheduled to contest a WNBA regular season matchup on 17 May at 7:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 44% implied probability for a Chicago victory, suggesting market participants favour Minnesota at roughly 56% likelihood. This probability distribution has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices establishes the marginal probability at which the last trades executed.
Historical matchups between these franchises provide context for evaluating the current odds. The Lynx have established themselves as a more consistent playoff contender in recent seasons, whilst the Sky's performance has been more volatile. Minnesota's roster depth and defensive capabilities have typically given them an edge in head-to-head encounters. The 44% probability for Chicago suggests the market is pricing in their underdog status relative to Minnesota's recent form, though not to an extreme degree that would indicate dismissal of their chances.
Traders should monitor roster availability in the days preceding the fixture, particularly injury reports for key contributors on both sides. The Lynx's depth at guard positions and the Sky's reliance on their core players mean that late-breaking absences could materially shift the probability. Additionally, the settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 17 May, allowing only a narrow window post-game for resolution, so traders should account for any potential postponement scenarios that would keep the market open pending rescheduling.
Wikipedia Context
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Chicago SkyThe Chicago Sky are an American professional basketball team based in Chicago. The Sky compete in the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) as a member of the Eastern Conference. The franchise was founded prior to the 2006 season. The Sky experienced a period of success from 2013 to 2016, making four playoff appearances and playing in the 2014 WNBA
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American Basketball Association (2000–present)The American Basketball Association (ABA) is an American semi-professional men's basketball minor league that was founded in 1999.
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DyeA dye is a colored substance that is soluble in some solvent; by contrast pigments are insoluble or nearly so in all solvents. Because of their solubility, dyes can chemically bind to the material they color. Dye is generally applied in an aqueous solution and may require a mordant to improve the fastness of the dye on the fiber.
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Interstate 90 in IllinoisInterstate 90 (I-90) in the US state of Illinois runs roughly northwest-to-southeast through the northern part of the state. Entering Illinois at the Wisconsin state line in South Beloit, it passes through the Rock River Valley and the suburbs of Rockford, where it turns eastward, heading towards Chicago through farmland west of the Fox River Valley and thro
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wnba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 44% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $227 if YES resolves true — a 127% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 44%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wnba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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