Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026. For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| North America | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Asia | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Oceania | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Europe | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Africa | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| South America | 21% YES | 80% NO |
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be jointly hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico from 11 June to 19 July 2026. The tournament's location across North America creates an unusual geographical distribution: whilst the competition occurs on the continent of North America, the winning team will represent whichever country emerges victorious. The market resolves to the continent of the champion nation, meaning a win by any European, South American, African, Asian, or Oceanian team would resolve YES, whilst a North American victor (USA, Canada, or Mexico) would resolve NO.
Historically, European nations have dominated World Cup outcomes, winning 12 of the 22 tournaments since 1930. South America has claimed nine titles, whilst Africa, Asia, and Oceania have never produced a champion. The current 3% implied probability for non-European/South American victory reflects this historical pattern. France, England, Germany, Spain, and Argentina remain among the favourites across major sportsbooks, with European representation particularly strong given depth across multiple competitive nations.
Key catalysts include squad announcements and injury developments through 2025, qualifying tournament outcomes in Africa and Asia, and any unforeseen disruptions to the tournament schedule. The expanded 48-team format (up from 32) increases unpredictability, though historical precedent suggests this favours established footballing nations rather than emerging ones. Polymarket's order book currently reflects consensus around traditional powerhouses, with the 3% probability pricing in the substantial structural advantage held by Europe and South America.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which continent will win the 2026 Fifa World Cup?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.0M in lifetime turnover and $319K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $43K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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