Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Clayton Carpenter" if Clayton Carpenter is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jose Ochoa at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Jose Ochoa" if Jose Ochoa is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Carpenter to win by KO/TKO? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ochoa to win by KO/TKO? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Clayton Carpenter faces Jose Ochoa in a flyweight bout on the early preliminary card of UFC 328, headlined by Chimaev versus Strickland on 9 May 2026. The fight is scheduled for three rounds at 125 pounds. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 0% implied probability for Carpenter victory, suggesting the market has priced him as a prohibitive underdog or that insufficient liquidity exists to establish meaningful odds.
Early preliminary fights typically attract limited pre-event trading volume compared to main card bouts, which explains the extreme pricing and sparse order book depth. Historical patterns show that flyweight preliminary matchups often see late-arriving liquidity as fight week approaches, particularly when fighter information or injury updates emerge. The current 0% probability likely reflects either minimal trading activity rather than confident consensus, or a significant perceived skill differential between the fighters. Comparable early preliminary markets have shifted substantially once betting syndicates and sharper traders enter closer to the event date.
Traders should monitor UFC official announcements regarding fighter withdrawals, weight-cut complications, or schedule changes through early May. Any injury reports or late replacement fighters could trigger repricing. The settlement window closes 10 May at 03:59:59 UTC, providing a narrow window post-fight for resolution. Technical outcomes—draws, no contests, or postponements beyond 23 May—would resolve the market at 50-50, introducing additional uncertainty beyond straight win-loss outcomes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$397K in lifetime turnover and $112K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $375K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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