Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Süper Lig game between Trabzonspor and Gençlerbirliği SK, scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Trabzonspor | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Draw | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Gençlerbirliği SK | 25% YES | 76% NO |
Trabzonspor will host Gençlerbirliği SK in a Süper Lig fixture on 17 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% probability for a Trabzonspor halftime lead, implying roughly equal likelihood of a draw or away victory in the opening 45 minutes. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity as market participants price in available information about team form, squad availability, and tactical setup.
Halftime markets in Turkish football have historically shown sensitivity to home-ground advantage, though the effect varies considerably by opponent quality and fixture context. Trabzonspor's home record and early-match aggression typically favour the home-win outcome, yet Gençlerbirliği's defensive discipline in opening periods has produced draws in comparable matchups. The current 49% YES probability sits below the typical 55–60% range observed for Trabzonspor halftime leads against mid-table opposition, suggesting the market is pricing in either stronger-than-usual Gençlerbirliği preparation or uncertainty around Trabzonspor's starting eleven.
Key variables for traders include confirmed team sheets released 24 hours before kickoff, any late injury announcements affecting either side's attacking or defensive personnel, and recent performance trends in the final weeks of the 2025–26 season. Fixture congestion and European competition fatigue could influence Trabzonspor's intensity, whilst Gençlerbirliği's motivation in a mid-table fixture may differ from earlier-season encounters. Weather conditions and pitch state at the venue may also affect early-game tempo and scoring likelihood.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Trabzonspor vs. Gençlerbirliği SK - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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