Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Kocaelispor and Fatih Karagümrük SK.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kocaelispor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Kocaelispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fatih Karagümrük SK | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Kocaelispor will host Fatih Karagümrük SK in a Süper Lig fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a home victory at 30 per cent implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that the visiting side or a draw represents the more likely outcome. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity across the book's depth, where traders are balancing available information against historical patterns in Turkish top-flight football.
Fatih Karagümrük has established itself as a competitive mid-table side since promotion to the Süper Lig, whilst Kocaelispor's home record and recent form will anchor expectations. Historical matchups between clubs of comparable standing in the Süper Lig typically see home advantage priced between 35–45 per cent when the visiting side carries similar or stronger recent momentum. The 30 per cent reading suggests the market is currently weighting Karagümrük's away form or Kocaelispor's recent performance as a material headwind to the home side.
Traders should monitor team news through late April and early May, particularly injury confirmations and squad rotation patterns as clubs approach the season's final stretch. Fixture congestion—whether either side faces midweek European or cup commitments immediately before 9 May—will influence fatigue assessments. Recent league standings and goal differential in head-to-head records will sharpen probability calibration as the settlement window approaches. The order book will tighten considerably in the 48 hours before kickoff as late information flows and casual traders enter positions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Kocaelispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$119K in lifetime turnover and $187K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $117K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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