Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Beşiktaş JK and Trabzonspor.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Beşiktaş JK | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Beşiktaş JK vs. Trabzonspor) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Trabzonspor | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Beşiktaş JK will travel to face Trabzonspor in a Süper Lig fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026, with settlement occurring at the conclusion of the match. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in either a Trabzonspor victory or a draw as the overwhelming consensus. This extreme skew typically emerges when one side of a binary market lacks sufficient backing to establish meaningful liquidity on the affirmative position.
Historical context between these two Istanbul and Black Sea rivals reveals competitive matchups with variable outcomes. Beşiktaş has held stronger league positions in recent seasons, though Trabzonspor has demonstrated capacity for upset performances in head-to-head encounters. The current probability formation warrants scrutiny against recent form data, injury reports, and seasonal trajectory—factors that typically drive repricing in Turkish football markets as fixture dates approach.
Traders should monitor team news through April and early May, particularly regarding squad availability and managerial decisions. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the Süper Lig season often influences selection and intensity. Additionally, any developments affecting either club's European competition participation or domestic cup commitments could shift resource allocation. The settlement window closing at 17:00 GMT on match day leaves minimal opportunity for late-breaking information to reshape the market, making pre-match positioning critical for participants.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Beşiktaş JK vs. Trabzonspor" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$135K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $134K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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