Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Süper Lig game between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor, scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alanyaspor | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kayserispor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Alanyaspor will host Kayserispor in a Süper Lig fixture on 9 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for a YES outcome, suggesting the market is pricing in either a home win or draw at the interval. This extreme probability typically emerges when one side of the market has received substantial backing or when liquidity remains thin relative to the bet size.
Halftime markets in Turkish football have historically shown volatility dependent on team form, tactical setup, and early-match momentum. Alanyaspor's home record and Kayserispor's defensive stability in opening periods will be relevant comparables. Teams in the Süper Lig often adopt cautious approaches in the first half, making draws at halftime more common than full-match results might suggest. The 100% reading warrants scrutiny—such probabilities frequently indicate either genuine consensus or insufficient depth in the order book to absorb contrarian positions.
Traders should monitor team news closer to 9 May, including injury updates and any tactical shifts announced by either manager. Kayserispor's recent form and whether either side enters the match with specific objectives (promotion push, relegation battle) will shape early-game aggression. Weather conditions on match day and the timing of the fixture relative to other Süper Lig commitments may also influence pacing. Settlement occurs at 17:00 UTC on match day, allowing only the halftime window for price discovery.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Alanyaspor vs. Kayserispor - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$348 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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