Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Parma Calcio 1913 and AS Roma.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AS Roma | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Parma will host Roma in a Serie A fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability of a Roma victory or draw, with traders pricing in Roma's superior league standing and recent form relative to Parma's historical volatility in the Italian top flight.
Roma have consistently finished in European qualification positions over recent seasons, whilst Parma's return to Serie A in 2024–25 marked a significant step up after years in lower divisions. Historical matchups between these sides show Roma winning roughly 60% of encounters since Parma's promotion, though Parma's home record has improved markedly. The current probability reflects Roma's structural advantage in squad depth and European commitments, though it also accounts for the inherent unpredictability of single-match outcomes in Serie A.
Traders should monitor team news in the final weeks before the fixture, particularly injury status among Roma's key attacking players and any fixture congestion from European competition. Parma's form trajectory in April and early May will be a material signal; a strong run could shift the probability downward. Roma's domestic title ambitions or European elimination would also influence squad rotation decisions. Betting markets typically tighten significantly in the 48 hours before kickoff as late-breaking team sheets become available, which may alter the current 70% mark substantially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$768K in lifetime turnover and $966K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $751K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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