Trade: Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026 between Cagliari Calcio and Torino FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1.7M
- Total Volume
- $330
- 24h Volume
- $323
- Open Interest
- $330
Market outcomes
| Cagliari Calcio | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Draw (Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC) | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Torino FC | 30% YES | 71% NO |
Market context
Cagliari Calcio will host Torino FC in a Serie A fixture on Sunday, 17 May 2026, with the match settling at 13:00 UTC. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 40% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting roughly even odds between a Cagliari victory and either a draw or Torino win. This probability has formed across the market's liquidity pools as traders have positioned themselves ahead of the final week before kick-off.
Historically, home advantage in Serie A carries measurable weight, though Cagliari's record at the Sardegna Arena has been inconsistent in recent seasons. Torino, as a mid-table side, typically performs better away from home than their league position suggests, making road fixtures less predictable than home matches. The 40% probability sits between the baseline expectation for a promoted or struggling home side and a stronger favourite, indicating the market views this as a competitive encounter without clear dominance.
Traders should monitor team news through the settlement window, particularly injury updates and any late tactical announcements from either manager. Cagliari's form in the final weeks of the 2025–26 season and Torino's European qualification prospects—if relevant—could shift positioning. Weather conditions on Sardinia and any fixture congestion affecting either squad's preparation warrant attention. The order book depth will likely increase as Sunday approaches, potentially tightening the spread around the current 40% mark.
Wikipedia Context
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Cagliari CalcioCagliari Calcio, commonly referred to as Cagliari, is a professional Italian football club based in Cagliari, Sardinia, that plays in Serie A, the first tier of Italian football. The club currently plays home matches at the 16,416-seat Unipol Domus.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$330 in lifetime turnover and $1.7M of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $323 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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