Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Russian Premier League game, scheduled for May 11 at 8:15 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod (-1.5) | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| PFK CSKA Moskva (-1.5) | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod (-2.5) | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| PFK CSKA Moskva (-2.5) | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% YES | 27% NO |
FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod will face PFK CSKA Moskva in a Russian Premier League fixture on 11 May 2026. The settlement window closes at 12:15 UTC that day, capturing the match outcome. Current order book activity on Polymarket has priced the YES outcome at 12%, reflecting a market view that this particular resolution criterion—whatever additional markets emerge around the fixture—carries modest probability of occurrence.
The 12% implied probability sits at the lower end of typical ancillary market pricing for top-tier league matches. Historical precedent suggests that secondary markets around major fixtures (injury reports, team news, tactical announcements) tend to move sharply in the 48 hours before kick-off, particularly when involving established clubs like CSKA Moskva, which competes regularly in European competitions. Nizhnii Novgorod's recent form and squad depth relative to Moscow's resources typically favour the stronger side in derivative market pricing, though the specific resolution criterion here remains opaque without the full market description.
Traders should monitor official Russian Premier League communications and team announcements through early May for squad changes, managerial statements, or fixture rescheduling. CSKA Moskva's European commitments—if concurrent with domestic fixtures—can affect squad rotation decisions. The narrow settlement window (closing mid-morning UTC on match day) means liquidity may thin sharply once the fixture begins, so position management before kick-off becomes critical for any meaningful exposure.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://premierliga.ru/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. PFK CSKA Moskva - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://premierliga.ru/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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