Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Primeira Liga game between Gil Vicente FC and FC Arouca, scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Arouca match originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Gil Vicente FC will face FC Arouca in a Primeira Liga fixture on 11 May 2026, with the match kicking off at 3:15 PM ET. This exact-score market is currently pricing a 5% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a precise final scoreline in Portuguese top-flight football. The settlement window closes at 19:15 UTC on match day, allowing roughly six hours post-kickoff for resolution.
Exact-score markets in domestic league football typically see probabilities cluster around the most common outcomes—1-0, 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0 results—which collectively account for roughly 50-60% of all matches. Gil Vicente and Arouca are mid-table sides with comparable recent form; both averaged between 1.3 and 1.6 goals per match across the 2024-25 season. Historical data suggests that any single scoreline in a fixture between teams of similar quality rarely exceeds 8-12% implied probability, making the current 5% pricing consistent with less-favoured outcomes or deeper scorelines.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight preceding the match, particularly injury updates to key attacking or defensive personnel that could shift expected goal output. Fixture congestion late in the season may affect squad rotation decisions. Recent form divergence—should one side enter the match on a winning streak whilst the other struggles—could materially alter scoring patterns. Polymarket's order book will likely see activity in the final 48 hours as late-arriving information crystallises trader positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Arouca - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $274 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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