Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Peru Liga 1 game, scheduled for May 11 at 2:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| CD Garcilaso (-1.5) | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| CD Garcilaso (-2.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
CD Garcilaso and Club Alianza Atlético will meet in Peru's Liga 1 on 11 May at 14:00 ET. The market currently reflects a 70% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, formed across Polymarket's order book as traders price the fixture and related betting opportunities. This probability sits above historical baseline expectations for Garcilaso in home fixtures, suggesting the market is pricing in either strong recent form or structural advantages in the matchup.
Garcilaso finished the 2024 season in mid-table, whilst Alianza Atlético has historically occupied a lower tier within Liga 1's competitive hierarchy. Head-to-head records favour Garcilaso, though Peru's Liga 1 exhibits considerable volatility across seasons. The 70% probability reflects confidence in Garcilaso's superiority but leaves meaningful room for upset outcomes—typical for markets pricing Peruvian domestic football, where injury disruptions and squad rotation are frequent.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official Liga 1 fixture confirmations through early May, particularly regarding squad availability and any last-minute scheduling changes. Recent performance in April fixtures will signal current form; Garcilaso's results in the weeks preceding the match will directly influence order book pricing. Alianza Atlético's recent defensive record and goal-scoring output are secondary catalysts. The settlement window closes 11 May at 18:00 UTC, allowing roughly four hours post-match for final price discovery before resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liga1.pe/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Garcilaso vs. Club Alianza Atlético - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $54K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $12K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://liga1.pe/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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