Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game, scheduled for Saturday, May 30, 2026 between AD Tarma and Cusco FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AD Tarma | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (AD Tarma vs. Cusco FC) | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Cusco FC | 46% YES | 55% NO |
AD Tarma will host Cusco FC in a Peru Liga 1 fixture on Saturday, 30 May 2026. The match represents a mid-table encounter in Peru's top division, with both clubs competing for points in the domestic season. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 47% implied probability for a YES resolution, suggesting near-parity in market expectations around the outcome.
Historically, AD Tarma has operated as a mid-tier Liga 1 side with inconsistent home-ground advantage; their record at the Estadio Manuel Díaz Jiménez shows marginal returns relative to away performances. Cusco FC, based at altitude in the southern highlands, has traditionally benefited from the physiological adaptation of their squad but remains vulnerable to tactical adjustments by visiting teams. Previous encounters between these clubs have often been decided by narrow margins, with neither side establishing clear dominance. The 47% probability reflects this competitive balance, with traders pricing in both teams' recent form trajectories and squad depth.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official Liga 1 fixture confirmations through May, particularly regarding injury status for key players and any late schedule changes. Weather conditions at Cusco's high-altitude venue (3,400 metres) can materially affect match dynamics, favouring sides with acclimatised squads. Recent domestic performance data, available through official ADFP sources, will clarify whether either club enters the fixture on an upward or downward trend. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on match day, allowing final order book adjustments as kickoff approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liga1.pe/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AD Tarma vs. Cusco FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://liga1.pe/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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