Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football Team. An announcement from the University of Michigan that they have hired a new permanent football head coach will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of whether the new head coach has officially started their role. Interim, acting, or temporary head coaches will not count. If no qualifying announcement of a new permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football Team has been made by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kalen DeBoer | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jesse Minter | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jeff Brohm | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Eliah Drinkwitz | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Manny Diaz | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Chris Kleiman | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person D | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person H | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Michigan's football programme will require a new permanent head coach before the settlement deadline in August 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current absence of any announced coaching vacancy or transition timeline. Sherrone Moore assumed the role in November 2023 following Jim Harmon's departure, and absent a termination or resignation, no hiring process would commence during the active football season or immediate off-season period.
Historical precedent suggests coaching changes at Michigan occur either mid-season (as with Harmon's exit following the Wisconsin loss in November 2023) or at natural transition points between seasons. The market's zero probability indicates traders are pricing in Moore's continued tenure through the settlement window, though coaching decisions depend on performance metrics, contract negotiations, and administrative priorities that remain fluid across a two-year horizon. Moore's contract situation and job security will shift materially based on win-loss records and bowl eligibility outcomes in the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Traders should monitor Michigan's seasonal performance, any public statements from athletic director Warde Manuel regarding coaching stability, and broader coaching market movements within the Big Ten. Significant underperformance, particularly consecutive losing seasons or conference failures, would substantially alter the probability of a coaching search. The settlement window's August 2026 timing means any announcement must occur before the start of the 2026 football season, creating a defined decision point for the university's administration.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Next Michigan Football head coach?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$327K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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