Sports

Trade: Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for May 23 at 9:30 PM ET.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$2K
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
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Market outcomes

Portland Timbers (-2.5) 26% YES75% NO
San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5) 28% YES73% NO
O/U 1.5 53% YES47% NO
O/U 3.5 48% YES52% NO
O/U 4.5 41% YES59% NO
Both Teams to Score 56% YES44% NO
Portland Timbers (-1.5) 40% YES61% NO
San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) 36% YES64% NO

Market context

Portland Timbers will face San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS regular season match on 23 May at 9:30 PM ET. The settlement window closes shortly after the final whistle on 24 May. Current order book activity on Polymarket has priced the YES position at 27%, reflecting modest demand relative to NO positions across the available contracts.

Historical matchups between these Pacific Northwest and California rivals show competitive balance, though Portland has held a slight edge in recent seasons. The 27% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific outcome favoured by the market or uncertainty around team availability and form. MLS mid-season fixtures often see variable pricing based on injury reports and squad rotation, particularly for clubs managing concurrent continental competition commitments.

Traders should monitor team news through official MLS channels and club announcements in the week preceding the match. Fixture congestion—Portland's involvement in the US Open Cup and potential Concacaf Champions Cup obligations—may affect squad depth. Weather conditions at Providence Park in Portland can influence match dynamics, though this typically reflects in live trading rather than pre-match pricing. Recent form data and confirmed lineups released 24 hours before kickoff will be critical inputs for reassessing the current 27% valuation against the order book's depth.

Wikipedia Context

  • Portland Timbers
    Portland Timbers

    The Portland Timbers are an American professional soccer club based in Portland, Oregon. The Timbers compete in Major League Soccer (MLS) as a member of the Western Conference. The Timbers have played their home matches at Providence Park since 2011, when the team began play as an expansion team in the league.

  • Portland Timbers–Seattle Sounders rivalry
    Portland Timbers–Seattle Sounders rivalry

    The Portland Timbers–Seattle Sounders rivalry is a soccer rivalry between the Portland Timbers and Seattle Sounders FC, both based in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The rivalry originated in the North American Soccer League of the 1970s, with both cities reviving expansion teams, and has carried into lower-level leagues, including the A-L

  • Portland Timbers–Vancouver Whitecaps rivalry
    Portland Timbers–Vancouver Whitecaps rivalry

    The Portland Timbers–Vancouver Whitecaps rivalry is a soccer rivalry between the Portland Timbers and Vancouver Whitecaps FC, both based in the Cascadia region of United States and Canada. The rivalry originated in the North American Soccer League of the 1970s, and later carried into successor leagues through the 1980s and the 2000s, including the A-League a

  • Portland Timbers (1975–1982)
    Portland Timbers (1975–1982)

    The Portland Timbers were an American soccer team that competed in the North American Soccer League (NASL) from 1975 to 1982. The team was based in Portland, Oregon and played their home games at Civic Stadium for outdoor matches and the Memorial Coliseum for indoor games. The nickname "Soccer City, USA" to refer to Portland was coined during the team's firs

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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