Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLS game between Minnesota United FC and Colorado Rapids SC, scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Minnesota United FC | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Draw | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Colorado Rapids SC | 19% YES | 81% NO |
Minnesota United FC hosts Colorado Rapids SC on 13 May 2026 at 8:30 PM ET in an MLS regular-season fixture. The market settles on the halftime scoreline—whether Minnesota leads, the sides are level, or Colorado leads after 45 minutes of play plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Minnesota halftime victory at 41% implied probability, reflecting modest favouritism for the home side.
MLS halftime markets historically show that home-team advantage translates to roughly 45–50% win probability at the interval, with draws accounting for 25–30% of outcomes and away wins 20–25%. The 41% price for Minnesota suggests the market is pricing in either a relatively balanced matchup or slight away-team strength. Recent MLS seasons have seen increased tactical caution in opening periods, with teams prioritising shape over aggression, which typically elevates draw probabilities at halftime compared to full-match expectations.
Traders should monitor team news through early May: injury updates for key attacking or defensive personnel will shift the probability substantially, as will any late tactical shifts announced pre-match. Colorado's travel logistics from Denver to Minnesota may affect squad freshness, though MLS schedules are standardised. Historical head-to-head records between these clubs and their respective form in the weeks preceding 13 May will inform whether the current 41% fairly reflects Minnesota's halftime edge or whether the market has mispriced home advantage.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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