Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for May 16 at 8:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| O/U 1.5 | 84% YES | 17% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| Austin FC (-1.5) | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Sporting Kansas City (-1.5) | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Austin FC (-2.5) | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Sporting Kansas City (-2.5) | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
Austin FC and Sporting Kansas City will meet in an MLS regular-season fixture on 16 May at 8:30 PM ET, with settlement occurring early the following morning. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 81% implied probability for the "yes" outcome, indicating substantial confidence in the proposition among active traders. This probability has formed through cumulative bids and offers across the market's depth, with the spread between buy and sell prices narrowing as conviction solidifies around the higher end of the range.
Historical MLS matchups between these sides provide context for assessing the current pricing. Austin FC has established itself as a competitive mid-table side since joining the league in 2021, whilst Sporting Kansas City remains a consistent playoff contender with deeper institutional experience. Head-to-head records and home-field advantage patterns in this fixture typically favour neither side overwhelmingly, though Austin's home record and recent form trajectories merit examination. The 81% probability suggests traders are pricing in factors beyond raw historical parity—likely including current league standings, injury reports, and momentum entering the fixture.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official MLS communications through the settlement window, particularly regarding squad availability and tactical adjustments. Weather conditions in Austin on match day and any late lineup changes announced closer to kickoff could shift the order book materially. The fixture's position within the MLS calendar—mid-season rather than playoff-critical—may also influence how both sides approach intensity and resource allocation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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