Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, scheduled for May 9 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| NRFI | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 12.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 10.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 13.5 | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Spread -3.5 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
The Washington Nationals face the Miami Marlins on 9 May at 4:10PM ET in an early-season MLB matchup. The Polymarket order book currently reflects a 47% implied probability for a Nationals victory, suggesting near-parity between the two teams in trader assessment. This probability formation reflects both teams' positioning in the National League East division race and their respective form heading into the fixture.
Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive balance, though the Nationals have held a slight edge in recent seasons. The Marlins remain a rebuilding outfit with inconsistent performance, whilst the Nationals have demonstrated greater stability despite their own roster transitions. Early-season games carry higher variance than mid-season fixtures, as teams are still establishing rhythm and managing injury recovery from spring training. The 47% probability suggests traders view this as a genuine toss-up rather than a clear favourite scenario.
Key catalysts for movement in the order book include starting pitcher announcements, which typically occur 24 hours before game time and can materially shift probabilities depending on recent performance metrics and injury status. Weather conditions at Nationals Park may also influence trading, particularly wind direction affecting fly ball outcomes. Recent roster moves or unexpected injuries to key position players could trigger repricing. Traders should monitor official MLB injury reports and team announcements through 8 May, as late-breaking information frequently drives significant order book activity in the final trading hours before first pitch.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$505K in lifetime turnover and $389K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $505K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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