Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for May 9 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| NRFI | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
The New York Yankees travel to Milwaukee on 9 May for an evening fixture against the Brewers, with the market currently pricing a 56% probability of a Yankees victory on Polymarket's order book. This reflects a modest favourite status for the visitors, though the spread suggests meaningful uncertainty amongst traders positioning ahead of the settlement window closing on 16 May.
Historical matchups between these franchises provide context for evaluating the current implied probability. The Yankees hold a slight edge in recent regular-season records against Milwaukee, though the Brewers have demonstrated competitive strength in their division. Comparable MLB games between playoff-contending teams typically settle around 52–58% for the stronger-seeded or home-field advantage holder, suggesting the current pricing aligns with conventional expectations for a road game by a stronger roster.
Key variables affecting the probability include starting pitcher assignments, injury status of core position players, and recent offensive form. The Yankees' bullpen depth and offensive consistency have historically favoured them in May matchups, whilst Milwaukee's pitching staff remains a material factor. Traders should monitor roster announcements in the days preceding the fixture, as late-inning availability or unexpected absences could shift the order book materially. Weather conditions at American Family Field may also influence game dynamics, particularly if wind patterns favour either team's hitting profile.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$140K in lifetime turnover and $705K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $140K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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