Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for May 12 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| NRFI | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 9.5 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
The Chicago Cubs travel to Atlanta on 12 May for an evening fixture against the Braves, with the market currently pricing a Cubs victory at 45% implied probability on Polymarket's order book. This probability reflects the collective positioning of traders across available liquidity, with the spread between backing and laying Cubs moneyline odds determining the precise formation of the 45% figure.
Historically, Cubs-Braves matchups have favoured neither side decisively over recent seasons, though the Braves have maintained a slight edge in head-to-head records since 2020. The Cubs' performance in May typically mirrors their early-season form, whilst the Braves' consistency as a playoff contender has made them reliable favourites in home fixtures. The current 45% probability suggests traders view this as a moderately competitive encounter, with the Braves holding marginal advantage given home field advantage and recent divisional strength.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, which typically become confirmed 48 to 72 hours before game time and materially shift moneyline odds. Recent injury reports from both rosters—particularly regarding key position players or bullpen availability—often trigger repricing on Polymarket. Weather conditions at Truist Park may also influence trading patterns, as wind direction and temperature affect offensive output in Atlanta's ballpark. The settlement window extends to 19 May, providing traders with a full week post-game to confirm final official statistics through MLB's governing records.
Below is a partial list of minor league baseball players in the Chicago Cubs system:
The Chicago Cubs baseball club is an original member of the National League, established in 1874 or 1870. Here is a list of players who appeared in at least one regular season game beginning 1874.
This is a list of award winners and league leaders for the Chicago Cubs professional baseball team.
The Chicago Cubs Radio Network is the network of radio stations that broadcast Cubs games on 30 stations in six states.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$167 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $157 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: