Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between CF Pachuca and Deportivo Toluca FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CF Pachuca | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Deportivo Toluca FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
CF Pachuca and Deportivo Toluca FC are scheduled to meet in a Liga MX fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing this match as a certainty to occur as scheduled. This extreme probability typically emerges when settlement criteria are straightforward and no material uncertainty exists about fixture completion.
Liga MX matches rarely fail to take place once officially scheduled, with cancellations or postponements occurring only under exceptional circumstances such as severe weather, security incidents, or administrative intervention by the Mexican Football Federation (FMF). Historical precedent suggests that once a match reaches the final week before kickoff, the probability of it occurring approaches near-certainty. Both clubs maintain stable operational status and have no known fixture conflicts that would prevent participation.
Traders should monitor official FMX and club communications for any late announcements regarding venue changes, security concerns, or force majeure events in the days immediately preceding the match. Stadium availability at Pachuca's Estadio Hidalgo or Toluca's Estadio Nemesio Díez should be confirmed through official sources. Injury or suspension announcements affecting key players do not alter fixture probability but may influence ancillary markets. The settlement window closes on 10 May at 23:00 UTC, providing a narrow window for resolution once the match concludes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$84K in lifetime turnover and $312K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $80K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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