Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between Ventforet Kōfu and FC Gifu.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ventforet Kōfu | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Draw (Ventforet Kōfu vs. FC Gifu) | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| FC Gifu | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Ventforet Kōfu will host FC Gifu in the J2 League on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Kōfu victory at 31 per cent, implying roughly even odds between a Gifu win and a draw, with the latter two outcomes commanding 69 per cent combined probability. This valuation reflects the fixture's competitive nature within Japan's second tier, where both clubs operate with comparable resources and recent form typically determines outcomes more than historical pedigree.
Kōfu and Gifu occupy similar mid-table positions in the J2 standings and have produced comparable win rates over recent seasons. Historical head-to-head records show marginal differences in home advantage; Kōfu's record at Yamanashi Stadium has been solid but not dominant. The 31 per cent YES price suggests the market views Gifu as slight favourites or expects a draw as the modal outcome—a reasonable assessment given that J2 matches frequently conclude level, particularly when neither side possesses clear tactical superiority or injury advantages.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official J2 League communications through mid-May for injury updates affecting key players, particularly in attacking or defensive positions. Weather conditions at Yamanashi Stadium on match day—notably wind and temperature—can influence play style and goal probability. Recent fixture congestion in the league calendar may affect squad rotation decisions, whilst any managerial changes announced before the settlement window closes would materially shift the probability.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ventforet Kōfu vs. FC Gifu" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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