Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game between Reilac Shiga and Kagoshima United FC, scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Reilac Shiga | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Kagoshima United FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Reilac Shiga will host Kagoshima United FC in the J2 100 Year Vision League on 10 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing an extremely low likelihood of a specific halftime result materialising. This compressed probability typically emerges when one outcome dominates market expectations or when liquidity remains sparse in early trading phases.
Halftime markets in Japanese football leagues historically show volatile pricing relative to full-match outcomes, as early-game dynamics—team setup, weather conditions, and tactical adjustments—create substantial uncertainty. Comparable J2 fixtures demonstrate that halftime results frequently diverge from final scorelines, particularly when teams employ cautious opening approaches. The 0% reading on Polymarket's order book suggests either heavy concentration of capital on alternative outcomes or minimal participation in this specific market segment to date.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries or lineup changes closer to kick-off, as Reilac Shiga and Kagoshima United's starting formations will directly influence first-half tempo and attacking intent. Fixture scheduling context matters: a 1:00 AM ET start time reflects the Japan-based match, which may affect liquidity patterns on Western-focused markets. Recent J2 season form, particularly defensive stability in opening phases, will provide meaningful context for reassessing the current probability as match day approaches.
Reilac Shiga , formerly MIO Biwako Shiga , with "Biwako" being a reference to Lake Biwa, is a professional Japanese football club based in Hikone, Shiga Prefecture. They are set to play in the third-tier J3 League from the 2026–27 season, after promotion from the Japan Football League in 2025.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Reilac Shiga vs. Kagoshima United FC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$75 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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