Trade: Modena FC 2018 vs. SS Juve Stabia - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Serie B game between Modena FC 2018 and SS Juve Stabia, scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Modena FC 2018 vs. SS Juve Stabia match originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $25K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-0 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
Modena FC 2018 and SS Juve Stabia will meet in Serie B on 12 May 2026, with settlement based on the exact final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 14% implied probability for the listed outcome, suggesting traders view this specific scoreline as unlikely relative to the field of alternatives. With multiple discrete score possibilities in football, exact-score markets typically concentrate probability across a small number of outcomes; the remaining 86% is distributed across dozens of other potential results and the catch-all "Any Other Score" category.
Historical precedent from Serie B exact-score markets shows that outcomes settling to "Any Other Score" occur in roughly 70–75% of matches, given the mathematical breadth of possible final scores. Draws and low-scoring results (0–0, 1–1, 1–0) tend to capture disproportionate probability mass, whilst higher-scoring lines and specific multi-goal differentials remain thinly traded. The 14% probability here suggests the market is pricing this particular scoreline somewhere in the mid-range of likelihood—neither a baseline draw nor an outlier result.
Traders should monitor team news, injury reports and recent form as the match approaches. Modena and Juve Stabia's final-season positioning, goal-scoring patterns and defensive records will inform whether the listed outcome aligns with typical output. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of Serie B and any late schedule changes could affect squad rotation and tactical approach. The settlement window closes at 16:45 UTC on 12 May, allowing settlement shortly after the 17:45 CET kick-off.
Wikipedia Context
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Modena FC 2018Modena Football Club 2018, commonly referred to as Modena, is an Italian football club based in Modena, Emilia-Romagna. The club was founded in 1912, and refounded in 2018, having spent the majority of its existence playing in Serie B. They play in Serie B, having won 2021–22 Serie C's Group B title.
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Moderna COVID-19 vaccineThe Moderna COVID‑19 vaccine, sold under the brand name Spikevax among others, is a COVID-19 vaccine developed by the American company Moderna, the United States National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). Depending on the jurisdiction, it is authorized for use in huma
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Modena VolleyModena Volley is a professional volleyball team based in Modena, Italy. It has played in the highest level of the Italian Volleyball League without interruption since 1968. It is the most successful Italian club, having won both the national league and the national cup twelve times each. The club is one of the most prominent and prestigious in Europe too, ha
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Stefano ModenaStefano Modena is an Italian former racing driver who competed in Formula One from 1987 to 1992.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaserieb.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Modena FC 2018 vs. SS Juve Stabia - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaserieb.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Modena FC 2018 vs. SS Juve Stabia - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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