Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Ligue 1 game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between AS Monaco FC and Lille OSC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AS Monaco FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Lille OSC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
AS Monaco and Lille will meet in Ligue 1 on Sunday, 10 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final match result. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Monaco victory at 33 per cent implied probability, reflecting the market's assessment that Lille enters as favourites or the match leans toward a draw. This probability has been formed through continuous trading activity and reflects real-time positioning by participants with varying conviction levels.
Historically, Monaco and Lille have competed at similar competitive levels in Ligue 1, though their recent trajectories matter considerably. Monaco has shown volatility in form and European involvement, whilst Lille has established itself as a consistent top-four contender with stronger depth. Head-to-head records and home-ground advantage—the match is scheduled for neutral or home conditions depending on final fixture allocation—typically shift probabilities by 5–10 percentage points in favour of the home side. The 33 per cent price suggests the market is pricing Monaco as underdogs, consistent with Lille's recent league positioning.
Traders should monitor team news through late April and early May, particularly injury updates to key attacking or defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season, European competition outcomes, and any managerial changes will influence squad availability and tactical approach. Additionally, final league standings pressure—whether either side is fighting for European qualification or avoiding relegation—can materially shift motivation and risk-taking in play. Settlement occurs immediately after full-time whistle on 10 May at 19:00 UTC.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligue1.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$158K in lifetime turnover and $299K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $138K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligue1.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: