Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Thursday, June 25, 2026 between Tunisia and Netherlands.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tunisia | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Draw (Tunisia vs. Netherlands) | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| Netherlands | 69% YES | 31% NO |
The Netherlands and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 25 June. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Tunisia victory at 20 per cent implied probability, reflecting the substantial gap in recent competitive form and ranking between the two sides. The Netherlands, ranked 8th in the latest FIFA standings, qualified comfortably for Qatar 2022 and reached the World Cup quarter-finals. Tunisia, ranked 30th, exited the group stage in 2018 and 2022 without advancing.
Historical matchups between these nations show a clear disparity. The Netherlands won their most recent encounter 4–0 in a 2014 friendly, and have won five of their six all-time meetings. Tunisia's sole victory came in 1978. The 20 per cent probability on the order book reflects Tunisia's underdog status rather than any expectation of a competitive upset; comparable group-stage matches involving lower-ranked African nations against top-ten European sides typically settle in the 15–25 per cent range for the African team.
Key variables affecting settlement include squad fitness and selection decisions announced in the weeks before the tournament, and the specific group composition finalised after the draw. Injuries to key Netherlands players—particularly in midfield or attack—could narrow the probability gap. Tunisia's recent domestic league form and any late managerial changes would also influence match dynamics. The settlement window closes at the final whistle on 25 June 2026.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tunisia vs. Netherlands" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10 in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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