Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Sunday, June 14, 2026 between Côte d'Ivoire and Ecuador.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador) | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Ecuador | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 28% YES | 73% NO |
Côte d'Ivoire and Ecuador will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 14 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (Côte d'Ivoire victory) at 34%, implying Ecuador are favoured or the match is viewed as competitive. This pricing reflects both teams' recent form, qualification pathway strength, and squad composition as of early 2026.
Côte d'Ivoire qualified for the 2022 World Cup but exited in the group stage; Ecuador reached the knockout round in 2006 and 2014, suggesting greater tournament experience at this level. However, Côte d'Ivoire's African Cup of Nations performances and recent World Cup qualification suggest competitive depth. The 34% probability sits between a clear underdog position and genuine contention, consistent with how markets typically price African nations against South American sides in neutral group-stage matchups.
Key variables for traders include squad announcements and injury updates through spring 2026, as both nations finalise rosters in May. Ecuador's domestic league (Serie A) concludes in December 2025, whilst Ivorian players compete across European and African clubs through May. Any significant injuries to key players—particularly Ecuador's attacking options or Côte d'Ivoire's midfield—could shift the order book materially. Fixture congestion in the weeks before 14 June may also affect squad freshness and team selection philosophy, particularly for players in European leagues finishing their seasons.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $140 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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