Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Monday, June 8, 2026 between Niger and Mauritania.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Niger | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Draw (Niger vs. Mauritania) | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Mauritania | 45% YES | 56% NO |
Niger and Mauritania are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 8 June 2026. Both nations compete in African football's lower tiers; Niger currently ranks outside the top 100 in FIFA standings, whilst Mauritania sits similarly positioned. Friendlies between teams of this calibre typically attract limited media coverage and sparse historical precedent for direct matchups, making outcome prediction reliant on recent form and squad availability rather than established head-to-head patterns.
The current 41% implied probability for a Niger victory reflects the order book's assessment on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in a relatively balanced contest despite limited comparative data. Historical context suggests that friendlies between lower-ranked African nations often produce unpredictable results, with home advantage and squad rotation policies creating significant variance. Neither side has established dominance in recent qualifying campaigns, and both have experienced inconsistent performance across 2024 and early 2025 fixtures.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, as friendlies frequently see experimental lineups and player rotation. The timing—mid-2026, outside major tournament windows—suggests both nations may use the fixture for development purposes rather than competitive intensity. Fixture confirmations and any last-minute cancellations should be tracked through official CAF and national federation channels, as logistical constraints occasionally affect scheduled friendlies in West Africa.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Niger vs. Mauritania" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $420 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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