Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 3 at 2:45 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Italy (-1.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Luxembourg (-1.5) | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Luxembourg (-2.5) | 38% YES | 63% NO |
Luxembourg and Italy will contest a FIFA International Friendly on 3 June 2026 at 2:45 PM ET. The market is pricing the probability of additional betting markets being offered for this fixture at 43% YES on Polymarket's order book, reflecting moderate conviction that supplementary markets beyond the standard match outcome will materialise. The current implied probability reflects typical liquidity patterns for friendly matches between nations of differing competitive stature, where market depth often depends on broader tournament calendars and broadcaster interest.
Friendly matches between established European sides and smaller nations historically generate secondary markets when they fall within major tournament windows or qualification periods. Italy's consistent presence in competitive fixtures typically attracts deeper market coverage than Luxembourg's fixtures, though the June 2026 timing—shortly after the World Cup concludes—may suppress overall market appetite. Comparable friendlies in similar contexts have seen additional markets (such as correct score, total goals, or player performance props) emerge within 48 hours of fixture confirmation, though this is not guaranteed for lower-profile encounters.
Traders should monitor UEFA's official fixture announcements and broadcaster schedules, as expanded market offerings correlate with televised coverage and pre-tournament preparation phases. The settlement window closing on 3 June at 18:45 UTC provides a narrow window for market creation post-match. Recent fixture data from major friendlies suggests that markets proliferate when squad announcements or injury updates drive trading activity in the days preceding kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Luxembourg vs. Italy - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$165 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $165 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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