Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 1 at 2:45 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Austria (-1.5) | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Tunisia (-1.5) | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Austria (-2.5) | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Tunisia (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Austria and Tunisia are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 1 June 2026 at 2:45 PM ET. The market is pricing the likelihood of additional markets being created for this fixture at 42% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting moderate conviction that supplementary betting options will materialise beyond the standard match outcome and goals markets.
Historical precedent suggests that friendly matches between European and African nations typically attract secondary market creation when one team carries significant competitive standing or when the fixture draws broader media attention. Austria has qualified for recent major tournaments and maintains a consistent UEFA ranking, whilst Tunisia's participation in World Cup qualification cycles occasionally elevates interest in their friendlies. The current 42% probability indicates traders are pricing in uncertainty about whether this particular fixture will justify the operational overhead of additional markets, a calculation that often hinges on aggregate liquidity expectations rather than the match's intrinsic appeal.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of squad announcements and any injury updates to key players, which typically drive trading activity in the fortnight preceding international friendlies. Polymarket's order book formation reflects real-time assessments of whether broadcasters or major sportsbooks will feature extended betting options. The settlement window closing at 18:45 UTC on 1 June means traders should monitor Polymarket's own market expansion decisions and competitor activity in the final 48 hours before kick-off, as these often signal whether additional markets will be listed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Austria vs. Tunisia - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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