Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Thursday, June 11, 2026 between Austria and Guatemala.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Austria | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw (Austria vs. Guatemala) | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Guatemala | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Austria and Guatemala will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 11 June 2026. The match represents a low-stakes fixture in the international calendar, scheduled during a period when many nations use friendlies to prepare for major tournaments or to fill fixture gaps. The current order book on Polymarket prices Austria's victory at 49%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the outcome despite Austria's higher FIFA ranking and recent competitive record.
Austria has consistently ranked in the top 10 FIFA rankings over recent years and qualified for the 2020 European Championship and 2022 World Cup, whilst Guatemala has not qualified for a World Cup since 2006 and typically competes in CONCACAF qualifying rounds. Historical head-to-head records between European and Central American sides in friendlies show considerable variance, though the European team wins roughly 70% of such encounters. The 49% probability suggests the market is pricing in Austria as a clear favourite but acknowledging Guatemala's capacity to compete in a low-pressure friendly environment where tactical discipline and set-piece execution can narrow the gap.
Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, as injury withdrawals or late call-ups could shift the implied probability. The timing of the fixture—during an international break when club commitments cease—means full-strength squads are likely available. Recent form and any tactical adjustments announced by either manager would constitute material information, though such details typically emerge only days before the match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Austria vs. Guatemala" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $738 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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