Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Czechia Fortuna Liga game, scheduled for Tuesday, May 12, 2026 between 1. FC Slovácko and FC Baník Ostrava.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Slovácko | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Draw (1. FC Slovácko vs. FC Baník Ostrava) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| FC Baník Ostrava | 40% YES | 61% NO |
On Tuesday, 12 May 2026, 1. FC Slovácko will host FC Baník Ostrava in a Czechia Fortuna Liga fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Slovácko victory at 33 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest confidence in the home side despite their ground advantage. This valuation emerges from real-time trading activity and represents the marginal consensus among active participants as of today.
Slovácko and Baník Ostrava occupy different positions within the Czech league hierarchy. Slovácko, based in Uherské Hradiště, has historically competed in the upper-middle tier of the Fortuna Liga, whilst Baník Ostrava—one of the country's traditional powerhouses—has alternated between title contention and mid-table finishes depending on squad investment and managerial stability. Head-to-head records between these clubs show competitive balance, though home advantage typically carries measurable weight in Czech football. The 33 per cent probability for Slovácko suggests traders are pricing in either Baník's superior recent form or squad depth, or both.
Traders should monitor team news releases through late April and early May, particularly injury updates and any managerial changes. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season may affect squad rotation decisions. Baník's European commitments or domestic cup involvement—if applicable in 2026—could influence available personnel. Weather conditions on match day and any late tactical adjustments announced before kick-off may shift probabilities in the final hours before settlement at 15:30 UTC.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fortunaliga.cz/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Slovácko vs. FC Baník Ostrava" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$117 in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $100 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fortunaliga.cz/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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