Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the cricket match between Bangladesh and Pakistan scheduled for 2026-05-15 in Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match goes to Day 3? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match goes to Day 4? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Match goes to Day 5? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Bangladesh and Pakistan will contest a Test match on 15 May 2026 as part of their bilateral series. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, suggesting traders view the outcome as a genuine toss-up between the two sides. This even split forms against a backdrop of recent competitive parity between the nations in the longest format, though historical records and recent form will ultimately determine how the probability shifts as match day approaches.
Bangladesh has made substantial gains in Test cricket over the past decade, moving from perennial underdogs to consistent competitors. Pakistan, conversely, has experienced volatility in Test performance, with periods of strength interrupted by inconsistent results. Head-to-head records between the sides show competitive encounters, particularly in Bangladesh's home conditions. The current 50–50 split reflects this genuine uncertainty rather than a clear favourite emerging from historical precedent alone.
Traders should monitor squad announcements, injury reports, and pitch preparation details as the May fixture draws closer. Venue conditions—whether the match occurs in Dhaka or Rawalpindi—will materially affect expectations, as will the availability of key players from both sides. Recent bilateral series outcomes and domestic first-class form in early 2026 will provide concrete signals for probability recalibration. Weather forecasts closer to the settlement window may also shift the order book, particularly if rain threatens to compress playing time or favour one team's bowling attack.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $141 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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