Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Lucknow Super Giants and Kolkata Knight Riders scheduled for 2026-04-26 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Lucknow Super Giants will be considered correct if Lucknow Super Giants is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Kolkata Knight Riders will be considered correct if Kolkata Knight Riders is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| LUC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| KOL | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Lucknow Super Giants and Kolkata Knight Riders will meet on 26 April 2026 in the Indian Premier League. This market requires both a toss win and match victory for either franchise to settle YES. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for YES outcomes, reflecting either extreme scepticism about one team's prospects or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price. With a settlement window closing 3 May 2026, the market has absorbed limited information relative to the match date, suggesting early-stage pricing before substantive team news or injury updates materialise.
Toss-dependent markets in cricket typically trade at probabilities reflecting each team's historical win rates plus a modest adjustment for home advantage and recent form. In IPL fixtures, teams winning the toss convert that advantage into match wins roughly 52–55% of the time across seasons, though this varies by venue and conditions. The conjunction requirement—winning both toss and match—mathematically compounds these probabilities, which historically trades between 25–35% for evenly matched sides. The current zero pricing suggests either the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or traders are pricing in material disadvantage for Lucknow.
Key catalysts include squad announcements and injury confirmations, typically released 7–10 days before matches. Venue conditions at the scheduled ground will influence toss importance; spin-friendly pitches increase toss value. Recent IPL form, particularly Kolkata's 2024–2025 campaign trajectory and Lucknow's player availability, will shape probability shifts as the match approaches. Traders should monitor ESPNcricinfo for official team sheets and any fixture postponements.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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