Trade: AD Pasto vs. CD Tolima
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Colombia Primera A game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between AD Pasto and CD Tolima.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| AD Pasto | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Draw (AD Pasto vs. CD Tolima) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| CD Tolima | 27% YES | 73% NO |
Market context
AD Pasto and CD Tolima will meet in a Colombia Primera A fixture on Wednesday, 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for an AD Pasto victory, with the remaining probability distributed between draws and away wins. This probability has formed through live trading activity and represents the market's aggregate assessment of Pasto's chances at home.
Historically, AD Pasto holds a modest home-field advantage in Colombian league play, though Tolima has proven competitive in recent seasons. The two clubs' head-to-head record shows relatively balanced outcomes, with neither side establishing clear dominance. Pasto's home record in the 2025 campaign provides context: their win rate at Estadio Departamental de Nariño has ranged between 35–50% depending on opponent quality and seasonal form. Tolima's away record typically sits 5–10 percentage points lower than their home performance, which partially supports the current 45% probability for a Pasto win.
Traders should monitor team news through mid-May, particularly injury updates and squad rotation decisions as the season approaches its conclusion. Fixture congestion in the Colombian calendar often influences selection, especially if either side has concurrent Copa or continental commitments. Recent league standings and goal-differential trends will clarify whether either team is chasing promotion or defending against relegation, factors that materially shift tactical approach and motivation. Weather conditions at Pasto's high-altitude venue (2,560 metres) occasionally affect away-side performance and should be tracked as the fixture date approaches.
Wikipedia Context
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Ad Astra (film)Ad Astra is a 2019 psychological science fiction film, directed by James Gray and written by Gray and Ethan Gross. Starring Brad Pitt, Tommy Lee Jones, Ruth Negga, Liv Tyler, and Donald Sutherland, it follows an astronaut who ventures into space in search of his lost father, whose obsessive quest to discover intelligent alien life at all costs threatens the
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Ad astra
Ad astra is a Latin phrase meaning "to the stars". The phrase has origins with Virgil, who wrote in his Aeneid: "sic itur ad astra" and "opta ardua pennis astra sequi". Another origin is Seneca the Younger, who wrote in Hercules: "non est ad astra mollis e terris via".
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AdrastusIn Greek mythology, Adrastus or Adrestus was a king of Argos, and leader of the Seven against Thebes. He was the son of the Argive king Talaus, but was forced out of Argos by his dynastic rival Amphiaraus. He fled to Sicyon, where he became king. Later, he reconciled with Amphiaraus and returned to Argos as its king.
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Ad Astra (soundtrack)Ad Astra (Original Motion Picture Soundtrack) is the soundtrack to the 2019 psychological science fiction film Ad Astra directed by James Gray and starring Brad Pitt, Tommy Lee Jones, Ruth Negga, Liv Tyler and Donald Sutherland. The film's soundtrack consisted of 29 tracks which consisted of music composed by Max Richter and additional music contributed by L
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://dimayor.com.co/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "AD Pasto vs. CD Tolima" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://dimayor.com.co/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "AD Pasto vs. CD Tolima"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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