Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Chinese Super League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Liaoning Tieren FC and Yunnan Yukun FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Liaoning Tieren FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Yunnan Yukun FC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Liaoning Tieren FC will face Yunnan Yukun FC in a Chinese Super League fixture on 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating traders are pricing this event with extreme certainty in one direction. This zero-probability pricing typically emerges when market participants hold strong conviction about the settlement criteria or when liquidity is thin enough that a single large order anchors the book significantly away from fair value.
Chinese Super League matches involving lower-tier clubs historically show volatile pricing in prediction markets, partly because domestic league coverage outside China remains sparse and team-level data is less accessible to international traders. Liaoning Tieren and Yunnan Yukun have both experienced fluctuating competitive form in recent seasons; their head-to-head record and current league position will inform whether the current pricing reflects genuine information asymmetry or simply low trading activity. Similar fixtures between provincial clubs have occasionally seen dramatic repricing once match day approaches and European and Asian traders enter the market with fresh assessments.
Traders should monitor official Chinese Super League fixture confirmations and any squad announcements from either club in the weeks leading to settlement. Injury reports, managerial changes, or fixture postponements could trigger repricing. The settlement window closes on 10 May at 11:00 UTC, leaving a narrow window for late information flow. Current liquidity constraints appear to be the primary driver of the extreme probability; wider order book depth may emerge as the fixture date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.csl-china.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$203K in lifetime turnover and $205K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $203K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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