Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Chinese Super League game, scheduled for May 24 at 7:35 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5) | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5) | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC (-2.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
Shandong Taishan and Wuhan San Zhen are scheduled to meet in the Chinese Super League on 24 May at 07:35 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 35% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the market is pricing in either a relatively unlikely event or significant uncertainty around the fixture's resolution criteria. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity and reflects the aggregate positioning of participants.
Shandong Taishan finished the 2023 season as champions and remain among the league's strongest sides, whilst Wuhan San Zhen has historically occupied mid-table positions. The 35% probability sits between a clear favourite and a genuine toss-up, indicating the market is not treating either outcome as dominant. Comparable CSL fixtures between top-tier and mid-tier clubs typically see the stronger side priced at 55–70% depending on home advantage and recent form. The current pricing suggests either material doubt about Taishan's form heading into late May or the YES criterion itself carries execution risk.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates in the week preceding the match, particularly for Taishan's key players. The CSL schedule often experiences fixture congestion in May, which can affect squad rotation and fatigue levels. Any official announcements regarding venue changes or postponements would materially shift the order book. Recent CSL fixtures have also seen increased competitive balance as mid-table clubs strengthen their squads, which may explain why the market is not pricing Taishan as a heavy favourite despite their pedigree.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.csl-china.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Shandong Taishan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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