Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Chinese Super League game, scheduled for May 15 at 8:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 85% YES | 15% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Hainiu are scheduled to meet in the Chinese Super League on 15 May 2026 at 08:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES side at 44%, reflecting modest confidence in the outcome being priced. This probability has formed across the available liquidity, with traders balancing fixture difficulty, recent form, and squad availability against the settlement window closing on 15 May at 12:00 UTC.
Beijing Guoan enters the 2026 season as a historically stronger franchise with greater financial resources and a larger talent pool, though their competitive position relative to Qingdao has narrowed in recent seasons. Qingdao Hainiu has invested substantially and finished mid-table in recent campaigns, making them a credible mid-tier opponent rather than an outlier. The 44% probability suggests the market views this as a relatively even fixture or leans slightly towards Guoan, consistent with home advantage and historical precedent in Chinese Super League matchups between clubs of similar recent standing.
Traders should monitor squad news and injury reports in the fortnight before the fixture, particularly regarding key attacking or defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the weeks prior—whether either side faces cup competitions or midweek league matches—will affect rotation and fatigue levels. Recent form in April and early May will be material; a run of wins or losses immediately before 15 May typically shifts probabilities on Polymarket's order book as new information arrives.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.csl-china.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$139 in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $139 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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