Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 10 at 1:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5) | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5) | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5) | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Mainz and Union Berlin will meet on 10 May 2026 in a Bundesliga fixture scheduled for 13:30 ET. The market currently reflects an 8% probability for "more markets" to be created around this match, suggesting traders assess a low likelihood that additional betting options will be offered beyond the standard match outcomes and player props already available on Polymarket. The order book is pricing this scarcity expectation, with the YES side thinly traded relative to the NO position.
Historical precedent shows that Bundesliga matches between mid-table sides typically generate limited derivative market activity compared to fixtures involving Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, or title-contending clubs. Mainz finished 14th in the 2024–25 season whilst Union Berlin occupied 11th place, making this a lower-profile encounter unlikely to attract the speculative interest that drives additional market creation. Comparable matches from previous seasons have rarely spawned supplementary markets beyond standard offerings unless one club was in a dramatic promotion or relegation battle.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's internal scheduling decisions and any late-season developments that might elevate the match's significance—such as either side entering a survival fight or a European qualification race. Fixture congestion and squad availability announcements in late April could shift expectations around market depth. The settlement window closes 10 May at 17:30 UTC, providing a narrow window for any new markets to be created and traded meaningfully before resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$214K in lifetime turnover and $271K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $186K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: