Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 10 at 11:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Köln (-1.5) | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5) | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 1. FC Köln (-2.5) | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5) | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 88% YES | 13% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
On 10 May 2026, 1. FC Köln will face 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 in a Bundesliga fixture at 11:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 27%, reflecting a market view that leans toward alternative results. This probability is formed through live trading activity on the platform's order book, where participants continuously adjust positions based on incoming information and their own assessments of the match outcome.
Historical context for Bundesliga relegation-form matches shows that late-season fixtures between mid-table and lower-ranked sides often trade at wider probability ranges than their underlying win rates suggest, particularly when both clubs have competing objectives. Köln's recent form and league position relative to Heidenheim's trajectory will anchor expectations; teams fighting for specific outcomes—whether survival, European qualification, or playoff positioning—exhibit measurable performance shifts in final weeks. The 27% probability indicates the market is pricing a scenario where the YES outcome faces substantial headwinds.
Traders should monitor team news through 9 May, including confirmed lineups, injury updates from official club sources, and any fixture schedule changes. Bundesliga standings as of early May will clarify both sides' remaining stakes: whether either club has already secured their objective or faces genuine pressure. Weather conditions and venue factors, typically reported by match day, can shift short-odds markets. The settlement window closes at 15:30 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-kick-off for final order book activity before resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$149K in lifetime turnover and $532K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $148K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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