Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Bundesliga game between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim 1846, scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 11:30 AM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Köln | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On 10 May 2026, 1. FC Köln will host 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 in a Bundesliga fixture, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating traders are pricing this market with extreme confidence in an alternative result. This reflects either strong consensus around a specific halftime outcome or minimal liquidity at present price levels.
Halftime markets in Bundesliga fixtures typically reflect early-season form, recent scoring patterns, and tactical setup rather than full-match dynamics. Köln and Heidenheim occupy different positions in the league table historically, with Köln generally the more established side. Recent Bundesliga halftime data shows that home advantage correlates with roughly 45–50% probability of a home lead at the interval, whilst away teams achieve halftime leads in approximately 25–30% of matches. The current zero probability suggests traders have identified a specific outcome as overwhelmingly likely.
Traders should monitor team news through early May, including injury confirmations and lineup announcements released 24–48 hours before kickoff. Köln's recent form and Heidenheim's tactical approach will influence early-match tempo. Weather conditions on match day and any late managerial changes could shift early-game dynamics. The settlement window closes at 15:30 UTC on match day, providing a narrow window for position adjustments after the halftime whistle.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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