Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 10 at 9:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hamburger SV (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SC Freiburg (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hamburger SV (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SC Freiburg (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Hamburger SV will face SC Freiburg in a Bundesliga fixture on 10 May 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 9:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing additional markets related to this match at a 13% implied probability, reflecting relatively low conviction among traders that these supplementary betting outcomes will be triggered or settled affirmatively.
Historical precedent suggests that mid-table Bundesliga sides like Freiburg have shown resilience in late-season fixtures, whilst Hamburg's recent form has been inconsistent. When comparing similar end-of-season encounters between clubs of comparable standing, additional market conditions—such as injury status, European competition fatigue, or relegation/promotion pressure—typically shift probabilities by 5–15 percentage points. The current 13% reading indicates traders are pricing in a scenario where standard outcomes dominate, with ancillary conditions remaining unlikely.
Key catalysts to monitor include official team news releases regarding squad availability, confirmation of final fixture scheduling, and any late-season developments affecting either club's competitive standing. Polymarket's order book will reflect real-time adjustments as these factors emerge; traders should watch for updates in the week preceding the match. The settlement window closes at 13:30 UTC on 10 May, giving traders a narrow window post-match to assess whether conditions for these additional markets have been met.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$186K in lifetime turnover and $2.0M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $181K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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