Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for May 22 at 6:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Clube Náutico Capibaribe (-1.5) | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Cuiabá EC (-1.5) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Clube Náutico Capibaribe (-2.5) | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Cuiabá EC (-2.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
Clube Náutico Capibaribe will face Cuiabá EC in a Brazil Serie B fixture on 22 May 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing the outcome at 35% YES, reflecting market participants' assessment of the match conditions and team form as of today. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity rather than a single source, with the spread between bid and ask orders determining the implied price traders observe.
Capibaribe competes in Brazil's second division from Recife, whilst Cuiabá represents Mato Grosso in the same league. Historical context matters here: Capibaribe has shown variable performance in Serie B, whilst Cuiabá has established itself as a competitive mid-table side in recent seasons. The 35% probability suggests traders view this matchup as moderately favourable to one side, though the specific framing of this market—whether it concerns a Capibaribe win, draw, or other outcome—will determine how to interpret that figure against each team's recent form and head-to-head record.
Traders should monitor team news through May, including injury reports and squad rotations, which often shift in the final weeks before fixture congestion. Fixture scheduling itself matters: both clubs' positions in the league table and their remaining matches will influence tactical approach. Weather conditions in Recife or neutral venues, if applicable, may also affect play. Settlement closes 22 May at 22:00 UTC, allowing roughly four hours post-match for official confirmation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Cuiabá EC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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