Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between Goiás EC and Botafogo FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Goiás EC | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw (Goiás EC vs. Botafogo FC) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Botafogo FC | 22% YES | 79% NO |
Botafogo FC will travel to face Goiás EC in a Serie B fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (a Botafogo victory) at 49%, reflecting near-parity between the two sides in market participants' assessment. This probability has emerged from real-time trading activity and represents the marginal price at which buyers and sellers are meeting.
Botafogo's recent trajectory in Serie B provides context for the current valuation. The Rio de Janeiro club has oscillated between promotion contention and mid-table finishes in recent seasons, whilst Goiás has shown inconsistent form typical of mid-tier Serie B competitors. Historical head-to-head records between these clubs suggest relatively balanced encounters, though venue advantage—Goiás playing at home—typically shifts win probabilities by 5–8 percentage points in Brazilian football. The 49% YES price implies traders are pricing in Goiás's home advantage as a meaningful factor offsetting any perceived quality differential.
Key variables to monitor include team news on injuries or suspensions in the fortnight before kick-off, which could alter squad depth significantly. Botafogo's fixture congestion in May—potentially overlapping with other competitions—may affect squad rotation decisions. Recent form in the weeks immediately preceding the match will be critical; a run of wins or losses for either side typically shifts market prices materially. Settlement occurs at 21:30 UTC on match day, allowing for final price adjustments as lineups and conditions become known.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Goiás EC vs. Botafogo FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $207K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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