Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between EC Bahia and Cruzeiro EC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| EC Bahia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cruzeiro EC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
EC Bahia will host Cruzeiro EC in a Série A fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The match represents a standard league encounter in Brazil's top division, with settlement determined by the final result on the day. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to a Bahia victory, reflecting either extreme confidence in an alternative outcome or minimal trading activity at present price levels.
Bahia and Cruzeiro occupy different historical trajectories in recent Série A seasons. Cruzeiro secured promotion back to the top flight in 2023 after two years in Série B, whilst Bahia has maintained consistent top-division status. Head-to-head records and home advantage typically favour the hosting side in Brazilian football; Bahia's Estádio de Pituaçu provides a known environmental factor. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are currently pricing either a Cruzeiro win or draw as near-certain, though such extreme probabilities often reflect thin liquidity rather than settled conviction.
Traders monitoring this market should track squad availability in the weeks preceding 9 May, particularly injury reports affecting key players at either club. Fixture congestion in the Série A calendar—including potential Copa do Brasil or continental commitments—can influence team selection and fatigue levels. Recent form data and head-to-head statistics from official CBF records will become increasingly relevant as the match date approaches. The settlement window closes at midnight UTC on 10 May, allowing one day for official result confirmation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$356K in lifetime turnover and $283K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $355K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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