Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Bolivia LFPB game, scheduled for May 24 at 5:15 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Club Bolívar (-1.5) | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Club Guabirá (-1.5) | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Club Bolívar (-2.5) | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Club Guabirá (-2.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Club Bolívar will face Club Guabirá in a fixture of Bolivia's Liga de Fútbol Profesional Boliviano on 24 May at 17:15 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting moderate conviction amongst traders that additional betting markets will be offered for this match. This probability has formed through cumulative order flow across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread between bid and ask indicating the degree of uncertainty around whether supplementary markets materialise.
Bolívar and Guabirá occupy different tiers of Bolivian football's competitive hierarchy. Bolívar, based in La Paz, is historically one of the country's strongest clubs and a regular Copa Libertadores participant, whilst Guabirá, from Santa Cruz, competes at a lower tier. Historical precedent suggests that fixtures involving top-tier Bolivian clubs attract broader market coverage on prediction platforms, particularly when they fall within international competition windows or carry playoff implications. The timing of this match—late May—places it near the end of the LFPB season, when fixture density and stakes typically drive increased trading activity.
Traders should monitor official Polymarket announcements regarding market expansion for this fixture, as well as any late fixture changes or postponements that might affect settlement conditions. The settlement window closes on 24 May at 21:15 UTC, providing a narrow window for market creation post-match. Fixture confirmations and team news from the LFPB will influence whether additional derivative markets justify creation costs.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://lfpb.com.bo/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Club Bolívar vs. Club Guabirá - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://lfpb.com.bo/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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