Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Japan B League game, scheduled for May 2 at 2:05AM ET: If the SAN-EN NeoPhoenix win, the market will resolve to "SAN-EN NeoPhoenix". If the Diamond Dolphins win, the market will resolve to "Diamond Dolphins". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SAN-EN NeoPhoenix vs. Diamond Dolphins | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Japan B League will host a matchup between SAN-EN NeoPhoenix and Diamond Dolphins on 2 May at 2:05 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for SAN-EN NeoPhoenix, indicating either overwhelming confidence in their victory or minimal liquidity in the opposing side. This extreme probability reading warrants scrutiny, as such levels typically emerge when one outcome commands disproportionate backing relative to available counter-orders rather than reflecting genuine consensus on the underlying event.
The B League's competitive structure and recent form data provide context for evaluating this probability. NeoPhoenix and Diamond Dolphins operate within Japan's top professional basketball division, where regular-season outcomes depend heavily on roster composition, injury status, and head-to-head records. Historical matchups between these clubs and their respective win-loss trajectories this season would normally anchor trader expectations; however, the 100% reading suggests either insufficient historical precedent for this specific fixture or a significant information asymmetry among market participants.
Traders should monitor official B League announcements regarding roster changes, injury confirmations, or schedule alterations through early May. The settlement window extends to 9 May, providing a buffer beyond the scheduled game date to accommodate any postponements. Confirmation of final rosters and any last-minute coaching adjustments typically emerge 48–72 hours before tip-off. The extreme probability currently priced suggests limited depth on the Diamond Dolphins side; material new information about either team's availability could shift the order book substantially if additional liquidity enters the market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SAN-EN NeoPhoenix vs. Diamond Dolphins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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