Trade: Aris BSA vs. AEK
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Greek Basketball League game, scheduled for May 17 at 10:30AM ET: If the Aris BSA win, the market will resolve to "Aris BSA". If the AEK win, the market will resolve to "AEK". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $90
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Aris BSA vs. AEK | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
The Greek Basketball League will host a match between Aris BSA and AEK on 17 May at 10:30AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, suggesting traders view both sides as evenly matched. This equilibrium probability typically emerges when neither team holds a clear advantage in recent form, head-to-head record, or roster composition. The settlement window extends to 24 May at 14:30 UTC, providing a week beyond the scheduled fixture for any postponements to be resolved.
Historical matchups between these two Greek powerhouses show competitive results, with neither club dominating the fixture consistently. Both Aris and AEK regularly contend for playoff positions in the Greek Basketball League, and their encounters typically reflect the quality gap between top-tier Greek clubs and mid-table sides. The even split in implied probability aligns with their comparable competitive standing, though traders should note that late-season positioning and rest schedules can shift momentum significantly in Greek league play.
Key variables for traders include injury reports and squad availability in the days preceding the fixture, as absences of key players have historically swung Greek league matches. The timing in May places this game within the final stretch of the regular season or early playoff phase, depending on the league calendar. Any official announcements regarding postponements or venue changes would trigger immediate repricing on the order book, as would confirmation of player availability closer to match day.
Wikipedia Context
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Aris B.C.Aris Basketball Club known in European competitions as Aris Thessaloniki, is the professional basketball team of the major Thessaloniki-based Greek multi-sport club A.C. Aris Thessaloniki. Aris BC was founded in 1914. Their traditional home arena is Alexandreio Melathron.
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Aris B.C. in international competitions
Aris B.C. in international competitions is the history and statistics of Aris B.C. in FIBA Europe and Euroleague Basketball Company competitions.
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Ben ArisBenjamin Patrick Aris was an English actor who was best known for his roles in Hi-de-Hi! and To the Manor Born, and was also very active on stage. He was often cast in roles portraying eccentric, upper-class or upper-middle class characters.
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Alexander Aris
Alexander Myint San Aung Aris is the elder son of Aung San Suu Kyi and Michael Aris. He is also a grandson of Aung San, who is credited with achieving the independence of Myanmar. He has been representing his mother, who has been detained by the military junta for years; he accepted the Nobel Peace Prize for her, and on many other awards and occasions, he ha
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.esake.gr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Aris BSA vs. AEK" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $90 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Aris BSA vs. AEK"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.esake.gr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Aris BSA vs. AEK"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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