Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Germany BBL game, scheduled for May 2 at 12:30PM ET: If the Wuerzburg win, the market will resolve to "Wuerzburg". If the Ratiopharm Ulm win, the market will resolve to "Ratiopharm Ulm". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Wuerzburg vs. Ratiopharm Ulm | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Würzburg and Ratiopharm Ulm will contest a Bundesliga Basketball League (BBL) fixture on 2 May at 12:30 PM ET. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating either extremely one-sided sentiment or minimal liquidity at current price levels. Settlement occurs on 9 May at 16:30 UTC, with provisions for postponement extension and a 50-50 split should cancellation occur without rescheduling.
The 100% reading warrants scrutiny against comparable BBL matchups and historical pricing patterns. Domestic league games rarely trade at absolute extremes unless one team faces catastrophic roster depletion or the fixture carries negligible uncertainty. Polymarket's order book depth at the extremes often reveals whether this probability reflects genuine conviction or sparse liquidity—a single large order can push prices to 99%+ without meaningful consensus. Traders should examine whether recent form, head-to-head records, or injury reports justify such certainty, or whether the market simply lacks sufficient backing to establish a tighter spread.
Key catalysts include team announcements regarding player availability, any official postponement notices from the BBL, and confirmation of the fixture's status as the settlement window approaches. Traders should monitor the official BBL schedule and team communications for injury updates or scheduling changes. The settlement window closes 9 May, providing a narrow window for resolution; any postponement would extend the market's life, potentially allowing repricing based on updated information. Current pricing leaves no margin for contrarian positioning unless new information emerges.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Wuerzburg vs. Ratiopharm Ulm" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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